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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: ild who wrote (9300)	3/3/2004 3:19:11 PM
From: ild	Read Replies (1) of 110194

Date: Wed Mar 03 2004 14:51 trotsky (James@dollar and SM) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved oh well, at the moment, the weak dollar is seen as an additional monetary easing by the stock market, and thus supports it rather than dragging it down. however, when the dollar decline turns into a rout eventually, the stock market will be prone to a several standard deviations panic a la '87 imo. Date: Wed Mar 03 2004 14:04 trotsky (James) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved you must have misunderstood something then. i'm certainly NOT in the 'decoupling' camp - the negative correlation between the dollar and gold is one of the statistically most convincing and persistent correlations that exists in the markets. in fact, a significant decoupling occurred only ONCE, during the bubble phase of the 70's bull market in '79-'80. i'm only less worried that the dollar will go very far in this correction...maybe a revisit of the 200dma, but i'm not expecting much more at this stage. Date: Wed Mar 03 2004 13:47 trotsky (Ghawar) ID#377387: Copyright © 2002 trotsky/Kitco Inc. All rights reserved according to Saudi Aramco, 48% of Ghawar's ultimately recoverable reserves have been produced. this is the by far largest oil field in the world, and produces the bulk of Saudi output. if this 48% figure is correct, a brutal and swift decline in Saudi oil output is practically imminent. no more 'swing producer' status...and the beginning of the end of the oil era.

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