Tuna,
Gonna reply to only the first sentence of your post--and it'll be long. Give me a break, Doc, you keep throwing out these one-liners that take me 2 hours to answer!! I generally agree with you in keeping TA simple, but if you dont know the complex, how do you know the "simple" method (system, indicator?) you have selected is the best? Or does it simply not matter? I know one smart, successfull investor who has (and is a guru with) GET, MSWIN, WOW, and TC2000). He now states he has come full circle and uses only a long moving average crossover (21, 34, 89--all fib numbers) and trendlines. Period. Of course he is a long term investor and not a trader. Which brings up the next point--the shorter your time-horizon for trading--the more assuredly you should use TA. As I conceded, it isn't as critical if you a long term investor vs. trader. If you haven't guessed yet, I usually trade in a 1-2 week time frame, but if a stock is running, I stay with it till it runs out of steam.
Taking your brokers Stochastics, RSI, 50 and 200DMA and trying to TRADE with it is comical. If you are successful with this, attribute it to excellent stock-picking in a raging bull market rather than success with simple TA. A lot of what we are arguing about is probably due to trying to compare apples with oranges. Short term traders needs are far different from a long term investors.
One more jab at that rhino skin!! You said (post 2959) that you bought 1/3 of your planned investment in VVUS at 26.5, then more (I assume the next 1/3?) at 24.5, and I gather your last 1/3 will be at its 200DMA of 22.5? Catching a falling knife? Why not wait till it bottoms ( and it will someday, somewhere) and retraces to a breakout and then buy? Will cost you a point or 2 off the bottom, but you've already given up 2 points, and as YOU said, no one knows where the bottom is.
Have you gone to the GET URL I posted? They now have real time GET instead of only end of day version. Cant buy it, only lease it for $2520 per year. Amazing that they can sell (lease) this worthless software for so much. I guess no one went to it, at least no one said the URL was no good. Tried to address only Elliot Wave explanation, but evidently didn't work. tradingtech.com will get you to the GET home page.
Regards,
Gary |
