Libby,
Sorry, I don't spend a lot of time here since this thread died (we must be meandering among the ghosts now), but I'll take a little of the other side of Dabum's analysis, although in terms of your core holding our conclusion will be about the same: No clear signs that you should sell. Yet.
TGT's shares have rallied nicely in the last 13 months and there's nothing here to say that the rally wasn't technically warranted. The daily chart looks good and even the weekly looks fine. What's missing in this latest move has been volume; it's not low or anemic, it's just average. If you go back to 1998 on the monthly chart you'll see the first establishment of this broad trading channel with the short term top at about 25:
stockcharts.com[h,a]maclyiay[pb50!c20!f][vc60][iut!Lc20!La12,26,9]&pref=G
Since then it has traded within a channel running from 25 to 44-ish for five and a half years. Right now it is on an upswing from the bottom of the channel on standard (monthly) volume. Is there any evidence from the chart that it is likely to break through 44-ish on this run and establish a new higher high? I don't see any yet. So, given that we are serious capitalists, what does this imply for our strategic use of capital? Well, it has already curved back down from a try at the 44 level, and I see 2 immediate areas to test on the downside: 42 where a left shoulder may have formed on the daily, and 41 which is the 20 day ma (which is roughly where the autumn high was as well). There's a lot of congestion at the 39 level and then you're looking at the longer term trading range of roughly 26 to 44.
So, important areas to focus on, imho. New capital? I wouldn't commit it here. I would not commit it even on a successful test of the 20 day ma. And, if the stock breaks down through the 20 day mark, I would take my chips off the table completely and wait for something more definite.
When would I put new capital to work on TGT? Well, on a high volume test and piercing of that 44-45 ceiling, and not before.
I'm still playing with a lot of midgets here recently, but I know they're not everyone's (or sometimes even my) style. MAMA went out the door on Tuesday, and I'm wondering how long FMDAY can hold its parabolic trajectory. One I liked a few days ago and bought was ENV, which pulled back yesterday to let some more in; longer term I think this one has the possibility to go to the $5 range this year, which is a fine % gain in most people's books.
I generally check my p.m.s but not the old haunted house . . .
Kb |
