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Biotech / Medical : Biotech Valuation

CRSP 53.19

-1.4%

3:59 PM EST

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To: Biomaven who wrote (10781)	3/4/2004 5:37:52 PM
From: Icebrg	Read Replies (2) of 52153

Lehman Bros CTIC Bianco as usual offered a very smooth presentation. No doubt that man would make a good used-car salesman. Some of the take-home messages. TRISENOX. Since a patent miraculously has been granted for this product ambitions have grown. Bianco now sees a maximum sales level of 200 mUSD plus. It will take a couple of years to get there, I suppose. But there is for example hope to gain a label for first-line treatment of APL, which might be translated into revenues of 80 to 100 mUSD. Not too shabby for a drug that has been in use in China for some 2000 years or so. PIXANTRONE Was the first drug presented. Bianco is now starting to stress the positive aspects of the drug. Company said today that they are just about to initiate a SPA-guided pivotal trial for third-line aggressive NHL. I guess they had to issue that PR even though there are still some details to settle with FDA in order to match the slides that were to be shown during the presentation. Anyhow, Pixantrone still looks like a slamdunk to me. The company plans to file its NDA next year. Buying NovusPharma was one of the smartest biotech munches of last year, as I like to say. XYOTAX. Not much news there. STELLAR2 - the 840 patient trial testing Xyotax against docetaxel has been slightly delaid. Results are now expected H1-05. Reason was said to be longer survival times than expected. Might be due to the drug or to the patients. As always serves as a reminder that historical controls are more historical than controls. The Stellars 3 and 4 (second line treatments) should however be concluded during H2-04. The most promising thing about Xyotax is however the GOG study that should be started any month now. (I am still rather doubtful with regard to the results from the NSCLC trials). The Gynecological Oncology Group will run an ovarian cancer registration trial in a maintenance setting. The comparator arm will just be best supportive care, as there is no approved drug yet for this setting. A somewhat lower bar than what we are used to. COMMERCIAL Expects Trisenox to land somewhere between 32 and 40 mUSD this year. Was 22 mUSD last year. Expects to acquire still another product, which is supposed to add income to the P&L account already this year. This product is supposed to be synergistic with Trisenox, which of course will fit very well with the current sales structure. Erik

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