Compromise and Consequences in Iraq
By David Ignatius
washingtonpost.com
Iraq conveyed two potent messages on successive days this past week: the possibility of political compromise and the continuing danger of civil war.
The message of sectarian strife, which came in the bombs that ripped Shiite holy places in Karbala and Baghdad, was certainly the loudest. But America's proconsul in Iraq, L. Paul Bremer, believes the most important long-term news is the first, and I'm inclined to agree with him.
Bremer, in a telephone interview from Baghdad, described the process of negotiation that led to Monday's breakthrough agreement by the Iraqi Governing Council on a new "basic law" that will serve as the country's transitional constitution after it regains sovereignty July 1.
The key to agreement, Bremer said, was that each of Iraq's main political factions -- the Shiite Muslims, Sunni Muslims and Kurds -- realized it couldn't get 100 percent of what it wanted.
"I kept saying that the heart of democracy is compromise," Bremer explained. "You can't go for everything you want and forget about the others, because someday you'll be in the minority and you may need help. It was Political Science 101."
And compromise they did: The Shiites gave up their demand that Islamic law be the sole basis for legislation in Iraq; the Sunnis agreed that elections should take place by the end of this year, which will lock in the power of the Shiite majority; the Kurds agreed to moderate their demands for autonomy in northern Iraq and to limit the territory of the Kurdish zone.
"It was basically classic diplomacy -- working out each other's interests," Bremer said. "How far could we go, and how far could they go?"
Agreement on the basic law is Bremer's first big political success in trying to build the institutions of a new Iraq. And it supports his belief that when pressed, the different Iraqi factions would act rationally -- rejecting "go for broke" strategies that would destroy their country in favor of compromises that might save it.
The day after the agreement brought sickening evidence of how desperately the enemies of this new Iraq want to destroy any U.S.-brokered conciliation. Simultaneous suicide attacks on crowds of Shiite worshippers in Baghdad and Karbala killed at least 181 people, and wounded more than 500, by U.S. estimates.
It was the bloodiest day of terrorism in Iraq since the U.S.-led coalition toppled Saddam Hussein last April. And it seemed to be drawn directly from the playbook of a Jordanian-born Sunni Muslim terrorist named Abu Musab Zarqawi, who described his strategy for attacking Shiite targets and fomenting civil war in a document captured in January by U.S. forces.
The center initially seems to be holding in Baghdad, where Shiite and Sunni leaders issued calls for calm and reconciliation. But in Najaf, Shiite Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani issued a statement blaming the U.S. occupiers for allowing the terrorists to operate. And Shiite militiamen deployed in parts of Baghdad. If Iraq's various ethnic groups all turn to their own militias for protection, the slide toward civil war will accelerate.
The U.S. strategy in the killing ground of Iraq continues to be political reason, backed by U.S. military muscle. That tactic worked admirably last weekend in convincing the fractious Governing Council that it was time for consensus.
Bremer chaired most of the sessions himself. The council didn't take up the toughest issue, Islamic law, for two days, by which time it had gathered momentum by agreeing on lesser issues. Bremer didn't seek votes on any individual items; the only vote was the final unanimous one on the document as a whole.
He finally got compromise wording on the use of Islamic law -- specifying that it would be a source of legislation in the new Iraq but not the sole source -- at 11:45 last Sunday night. When the Shiites showed they would give ground, the Kurds and Sunnis did the same, and the final package was wrapped up at 4:20 Monday morning.
"They talked it through and began to see that they couldn't each get 100 percent," Bremer explained. Indeed, at one point during the negotiations, a leading Shiite member of the council, Mowaffak Rubaie, emerged from the chamber and told Arab reporters: "We're learning something new in Iraq -- how to compromise."
Tuesday's horrific bombings show how far Iraq still is from the sweet reason Bremer coaxed from the Governing Council. And Bremer himself has no doubt that more trouble lies ahead.
"We'll see more of these bombings," he warns. "We'll have some tough days. But time is running out" for the insurgents. No matter how many bombs they detonate, Iraq will become a sovereign nation again on July 1 -- with at least a taste of the politics of reconciliation.
davidignatius@washpost.com
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