Let's assume immigration levels will continue to be what they are and in some case may actually decline but that is not the problem.. the fact of the matter is over the years education levels, IT infrastructure since internet, reverse migration of US educated and trained engineers from asia back to home land etc. means, landscape has changed a lot in last 5 to 10 years..
And since inflation has to be kept in check, there is no pricing power for companies mean they will migrate to low cost centres.. They have been doing it before with traditional manufacturing jobs and then with electronics and now with IT / Software and everything in between..
US can't really say we are not going to be importing cheap goods because they don't have much choice, and US companies also need expanded middle class and markets overseas and since US saving rate is pathetic, debt load is excessive, govt finances are not that healthy so more then likely living standard here will decline and gradually go up in other places..
As we climb the food chain of outsourcing, it is becoming narrower from low skills to now a different plane altogether.. So question again is for these displaced worker, where are the equivalent jobs in terms of salaries etc.. and what kind of training is required.. Obviously, they can't all go in to medicine or what ever and that is why a lot of people were retraining for a trade per one article some where..
my .02 worth..
edit.. But I am sure there are a lot of niche technical jobs that can't be outsourced.. Not every company will outsource IT.. smaller companies will always have inhouse IT jobs but what it means for people who are still employed in commodity IT jobs is that salary increases will be tight, in fact they are being adjusted downward to "market" meaning employers have the upper hand at this point and going foward opportunities will be fought over and new graduates in traditional comp. science will have tougher time finding a job in the field.. |
