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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: mishedlo who wrote (1314)3/5/2004 3:50:44 PM
From: CalculatedRisk  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
re:housing.

The drop in construction employment of 24K was blamed on "weather", but we also know that the New Home Sales fell off last month. Since these sales are signed before the builders break ground, they are not impacted by weather.

If New Homes Sales fall back to the '99 level (around 900K annual rate) from the current 1,100K level, we could see “specialty trade” construction employment fall back from 4.27 million to the ’99 level of 3.97 million. That is a drop off of 300K in employment.

With a more significant slow down in housing, we will see a corresponding significant increase in unemployment. This will ripple through the entire economy.

Just some thoughts as we start looking for the coming slow down in housing.
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