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Politics : Foreign Affairs Discussion Group
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To: TimF who wrote (125688)3/5/2004 8:31:59 PM
From: KyrosL  Read Replies (1) of 281500
 
This article has China's GDP growing at 7.5% for the next decade (according to a Salomon Smith Barney economist). It's not unreasonable given that it grew 10% during the past decade:

english.peopledaily.com.cn

If the US grows at 3% over the next decade, the difference will be 4.5%. So my projection is actually pretty conservative. If the SSB economist is right, China will overtake us in size of GDP on a purchase power parity basis in 12 years or so. You are right, they will still be far behind in terms of productivity per person, and given their limited resources relative to their population, they will probably never reach US wealth on a per capita basis. However, I expect they will overtake the US in economic power before I reach a ripe old age.
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