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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: mishedlo who wrote (9504)3/5/2004 8:54:05 PM
From: BEEF JERKEY  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
True housing may be the most important number, or it could be inflation or even employment if it goes negative fast. I think it depends on which one goes south (or north) in a serious way first.

The US economy is just so unbalanced and rickety right now one of many events could set the chain reaction going.

If inflation were to kick in in a serious way the emperor (Greeny) would definitely have no clothes. The pillar on which his whole economic "experiment" rests on is continuing low inflation. A major ongoing spike in inflation would be seen in the PPI first. Serious inflation would result in bonds selling off (especially junk) and a hike in the Fed (if any common sense remains out there). The speculative stock markets would also likely soon follow suit and tank. According to Greenspan inflation just ain't supposed to happen so it could be a serious shock if it does show up. Crumble crumble - everything comes unglued as we enter a period of serious stagflation- and perhaps that’s just if we’re lucky.

I really think this economy is just one shock away from serious trouble right now. The fed has no “conventional” ammunition left. If they resort to unconventional tools I think that just means its over. The whole Greenspan plan right now seems to be to “talk cheerfully” about the prospects of the economy. I realize economics is partially psychology but that’s just pitiful. I agree that the last recession should have been allowed to run it’s course – now it’s a fine mess
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