Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: justwhatuwant who wrote (1375)	3/6/2004 12:30:07 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 116555

If rates go down between now and summer that will (may?) lead another wave of buying over summer period It will be interesting to see if it just leads to more refinancings but not much or any improvement in sales of new houses. In fact NEW houses is one of the key things to watch here. The pool of eligible buyers keeps getting more and more marginal: 1) 0% down payments. 2) 110% financing in some cases. 3) Bush wanting to give away free down payments. 4) %ownenship at all time highs (we can only get to 100%), in fact we can not even come close to that if one considers the affect that will have on rentals in big cities like Chicago, New York, LA, etc. 5) Perhaps we are getting close to the saturation point, right here right now. 6) Is that why Bush wants immigration amnesty: to get them to stay and hopefully buy a house? Can we be on the cusp of saturation? Remember there are many in big cities that just do not want to own and/or can not afford to own even if they wanted to. What market is left? PS: I just asked this of "Splotto" the homebuilder on my board on the Fool.

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