POLL WATCH | 3.6 7:55 AM
A Volatile Mix
By JANET ELDER - NYT
Americans are increasingly anxious about their own economic futures, critical of the way President Bush is handling the country's economic troubles and worried that things in the country are not going well, according to polls this week.
It is a volatile mix of opinion, one that sets the stage for an especially contentious election as both major party candidates try to appease the public's restlessness and capitalize on it.
While Mr. Bush continues to earn high ratings for the way he is conducting the campaign against terrorism, with 65 percent of Americans approving, the public's assessment of his handling of the economy is among the lowest of his presidency.
In a CBS News poll taken before it was announced on Friday that only 21,000 jobs were created last month, just 37 percent of respondents said that they approved of the way that Mr. Bush was handling the economy, with 56 percent disapproving. Among political independents, a group that Mr. Bush will need some support from if he is to be elected to a second term, only 32 percent approved and 57 percent disapproved.
With the contested Democratic primaries over, and Senator John Kerry of Massachusetts the presumptive nominee, voters are beginning to consider the choice that they will have to make in November — whether to give Mr. Bush a second term or not.
The CBS News poll and others show that he has his work cut out for him, with less than half the public, 47 percent, approving of the way he is handling his job as president and 44 percent disapproving. It is the first time that CBS News has found Mr. Bush's job approval below 50 percent.
Over the course of the last month, while the Democratic primaries were playing out, Mr. Bush lost ground with women, people under the age of 44 and white voters.
Americans in general have also become more critical of the way Mr. Bush is conducting the nation's foreign policy, with 44 percent saying they approve and 47 percent saying they disapprove. In addition, more than half of the respondents in the CBS News poll said the war in Iraq was not worth the loss of American life and other costs. A plurality said Iraq was a threat that could have been contained.
Complicating Mr. Bush's standing with the public on the Iraq issue is the perception that his administration exaggerated the intelligence it received in order to build support for attacking Iraq. The CBS News poll found that 59 percent of respondents believed that the administration had exaggerated the intelligence, while 32 percent said the administration had interpreted it accurately.
The nationwide telephone poll of 1,545 adults was conducted by CBS News from Feb. 24 through Feb. 27 and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.
Still, when it comes to compelling issues, none rival the economy. For months, in nationwide telephone polls as well as in polls taken in states where Democratic primaries were held, voters have said that they are more worried about the economy and jobs than they are about anything else, including terrorism and the war in Iraq.
On that account, 70 percent of Americans surveyed in another poll said that Mr. Bush could be doing more to improve economic conditions, while 26 percent said that he was doing as much as he could. The nationwide telephone poll of 1,000 adults was conducted Feb. 24 through Feb. 29 by the Pew Research Center for the People and the Press and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.
The same poll found the country dissatisfied with the way things are going. Fifty-five percent said they were dissatisfied with the way things are going in the country in general and 39 percent said they were satisfied.
The polls out this week asked voters whom they would vote for if the election were held today, and the results showed that little had changed politically since the highly contentious election of 2000. In the Pew poll, 47 percent of the registered voters said they would vote for Mr. Bush and 47 percent said they would vote for Mr. Kerry. Those numbers included the choices of voters who initially expressed no preference and then were asked what they would do if they had to make a choice.
There is also evidence in the CBS News poll and one by the Annenberg Public Policy Center that Dick Cheney may be giving some voters pause when it comes to supporting Mr. Bush.
When voters were asked by CBS News if they would vote for George W. Bush or John Kerry, 46 percent said they would vote for Mr. Bush and 47 percent said they would vote for Mr. Kerry. But when a hypothetical ticket of Mr. Bush and Mr. Cheney was pitted against one of Mr. Kerry and John Edwards, 42 percent of the voters said they would favor the Republican ticket and 50 percent said they would supported the Democratic ticket.
The Annenberg poll found that views of Mr. Cheney had become increasingly negative since October, and more than a quarter of Republican primary voters say Mr. Bush should choose a new running mate.
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