Election 2004: the key battlegrounds
observer.guardian.co.uk
Paul Harris
Sunday March 7, 2004
The Observer
The war in Iraq
A year after the invasion of Iraq and American troops are still coming home in bodybags from Baghdad. Kerry will attack Bush for going it alone and failing to find any weapons of mass destruction.
Bush will respond with the argument that he overthrows Saddam Hussein's evil regime and, after all, Kerry himself voted in favour of the war. Kerry also spoke out against the dangers of WMD.
The battle over image
Each side will attempt to plant an image of its candidate and its opponent in the mind of the public as soon as possible. This makes the first few months of the campaign the most important. Bush will portray himself as a tough war President. He will also use his trademark folksy charm to show himself as an ordinary guy. This will contrast with an attack on Kerry's flip-flops over policy and wooden public speeches. Kerry will also be shown as a Washington insider with extremist liberal principles. Democrats will attack Bush as a reckless President who led his country into the wrong war. They will show him as a Texas cowboy, beholden to special interests, whose environmental record has been a disaster and as someone who only gives tax breaks to the rich.
The culture war
Bush has made changing the constitution to prevent gay marriages a central part of his campaign. Kerry, while not supporting gay marriage, has come out strongly against any change to America's constitution. Bush is seeking to shore up his core support among conservatives by putting values into the election. Kerry will use the issue to attack Republicans as gay bashers trying to divide rather than unite America. Bush will show the Democrats as out of touch with middle America.
The dash for cash
Bush holds a decisive advantage in money. In total his campaign has raised almost $150 million so far. Kerry has raised barely a quarter of that. Democrats now have to concentrate on raising money for the fight ahead. The Republicans, however, are only just beginning to spend their war chest. This gives them a strong advantage in the opening salvos of the campaign.
The war on terror
Bush, in controversially evoking 11 September in his opening campaign adverts, has shown that he intends to try to rally the electorate around the flag. He will highlight the biggest challenge he faced in his presidency and portray himself as moulded by the attacks on the Twin Towers. Kerry will attack Bush for not doing enough in the war on terror and say that Bush has left America dangerously unsafe. However, Republicans see this national security issue as their strongest card and will seek to portray Kerry as not decisive enough to lead a country still facing a terrorist threat.
Crucial states
Called the swing states, both sides will likely campaign hard in the rust belt states, like Ohio, of the Midwest and the two states that had razor tight finishes in 2000: Florida and New Hampshire. Bush will ask voters to stick with him through tough times. Kerry will highlight job losses. |
