Housing from Splotto
HOME OWNERSHIP RATE is defined by the Census Dept. as the number of
homes occupied by the owners divided by total occupied households.
census.gov
Homeownership Rates. The proportion of households that are owners is
termed the homeownership rate. It is computed by dividing the number
of households that are owners by the total number of households (table
5 and 6). The formula is as follows:
Owner households
Homeownership rate = -------------------------
Total occupied households
Here is the data:
census.gov
Year First Second Third Fourth
Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter
2003.... 68.0 68.0 68.4 68.6
2002\r.. 67.8 67.6 68.0 68.3
2002.... 67.8 67.6 68.0 68.3
2001.... 67.5 67.7 68.1 68.0
2000.... 67.1 67.2 67.7 67.5
1999.... 66.7 66.6 67.0 66.9
1998.... 65.9 66.0 66.8 66.4
1997.... 65.4 65.7 66.0 65.7
1996.... 65.1 65.4 65.6 65.4
1995.... 64.2 64.7 65.0 65.1
1994.... 63.8 63.8 64.1 64.2
1993\r.. 63.7 63.9 64.2 64.2
1993.... 64.2 64.4 64.7 64.6
1992.... 64.0 63.9 64.3 64.4
1991.... 63.9 63.9 64.2 64.2
1990.... 64.0 63.7 64.0 64.1
1989\r.. 63.9 63.8 64.1 63.8
1989.... 63.9 63.9 64.0 63.8
1988.... 63.7 63.7 64.0 63.8
1987.... 63.8 63.8 64.2 64.1
1986.... 63.6 63.8 63.8 63.9
1985.... 64.1 64.1 63.9 63.5
1984.... 64.6 64.6 64.6 64.1
1983.... 64.7 64.7 64.8 64.4
1982.... 64.8 64.9 64.9 64.5
1981.... 65.6 65.3 65.6 65.2
1980.... 65.5 65.5 65.8 65.5
1979\r.. 64.8 64.9 65.8 65.4
1979.... 65.3 65.1 66.0 65.8
1978.... 64.8 64.4 65.2 65.4
1977.... 64.8 64.5 65.0 64.9
1976.... 64.6 64.6 64.9 64.8
1975.... 64.4 64.9 64.6 64.5
1974.... 64.8 64.8 64.6 64.4
1973.... 64.9 64.4 64.4 64.4
1972.... 64.3 64.5 64.3 64.4
1971.... 64.0 64.1 64.4 64.5
1970.... 64.3 64.0 64.4 64.0
1969.... 64.1 64.4 64.4 64.4
1968.... 63.6 64.1 64.1 63.6
1967.... 63.3 63.9 63.8 63.5
1966.... 63.5 63.2 63.3 63.8
1965.... 62.9 62.9 62.9 63.4
63.4% in 1965 up to 68.6% last year.
Here is the graph by region:
census.gov
However, that is a percentage of an ever increasing number of homes.
At the end of 2003 there were 121,145,000 homes. As compared to
119,875,000 at the end of 2002. See below, page 3.
census.gov
(review the data in the link above on home ownership by income
distribution, it's very interesting).
Therefore, looking at the data from 1989, a statistical low point that
cooresponds to a lull in the economy before the boom of the 90's we
have a rate of 63.8. It then increases to 68.6 today, a change
of 4.8%. Never has the rate been this high, and it is safe to assume
that our population and number of homes are higher now then
ever before.
This provides no forward looking insight into the possible saturation point.
The Census department estimates that we gained 2,835,853 people from 7/2002 to 7/2003.
eire.census.gov
So lets assume 2.8 million people a year get added to the population.
Right now we are building 1.8 million homes per year. While I
imagine that new homes tend to be more likely to be occupied
by their owners, I have no data to prove such, so we must assume they
are suject to the same percentages as the overall inventory.
So at 68.6%, that means that 1.235 million new homes last year were occupied by the owners.
The Census Dept. estimates that in 2002 there are on average 2.6
people per household (down from 4.8 in 1902!!). See:
census.gov
2.8 million new people/2.6 people per house = 1.077 homes
needed per year, on average to keep up with population.
1.235 million is only slightly higher then that 1.077 million.
I can't find data on the number of homes owned by the average person
(to account for multiple ownership) nor can I find data on
demolitions. Both of which might help understand how close we are
to saturation.
I am sorry that I can't offer conclusions yet, just data.
I will keep looking for more data and if anyone has anything to add, please let me know.
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