Don't you worry about the price of oil, Jay. Inflation-adjusted, it has never cost less. I remember paying $1.50 per gallon for premium unleaded back in 1983. Now it's $1.90. BFD.
The big picture. US unemployment will be discovered to be lower than previously estimated as lagging Household Survey data is integrated into leading data from the Establishment Survey. Bush will be re-elected. The dollar is bottoming at this moment. Gold, whose recent price movements, I think, can be explained principally as a product of the declining value of the dollar, will sag. US corporations, having vigorously suppressed hiring and unit labor costs, even while paying increased compensation to existing employees, will continue their rapid upward profit trajectory. The current high-productivity, low inflation, low interest rate economic environment will persist for the rest of the decade. US equities, currently taking a breather, will take off again towards the end of this year and soar through the end of 2006, take another break and then soar again through 2009-2010-ish. All is well. |
