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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: russwinter who wrote (9602)	3/7/2004 2:21:03 AM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (2) of 110194

Oil is indeed a wild card. Rising oil prices seem inflationary but there is another side to the coin. There is nothing productive about it. It acts as a direct tax on consumers everywhere. Some prices may be passed on others may not be, but the gas going into everyones car is less money that can be spent on other products and services. Rising oil is potentially a huge problem. A huge spike in oil prices could even be the trigger for the next recession. Spiking oil prices would be bad for the stock market, consumers, producers of goods, truckers etc. Already consumer confidence is headed into the gutter. You think rising oil prices will help? I am positive you do not. All it takes is venezuela blowing up, or heavan forbid Saudi Arabia to get overthrown, or just repeated terrorist attacks in SA on their pipeline or refineries. Instant $10 hike in oil. Nice and convenient for the politicians too. Blame the next recession on terrorists. Russ, looking at the job situation, I am convinced the US is headed into a recession next year. Not sure the "trigger" but oil could be it. No one is talking recession now. NO ONE! Remember 2 years ago when everyone thought the "double dip" recession was coming? Well now NO ONE thinks one is coming. News shock 2005 - Recession. The headlines will all say "it was impossible to predict", "No one could see it coming". Regardless of whether or not an oil shock causes it, I am sticking to that call. This train is at the end of the line. If I am right, the next FED move is CUT. Europe will already have cut. They are weaker than we are (well who woudn't be with all this frigging stimulus). Mish

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