Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: smolejv@gmx.net who wrote (47107)	3/7/2004 10:54:50 AM
From: AC Flyer	Read Replies (1) of 74559

>>I'd venture to say the consumer demand correlates with but does not cause a decline.<< DJ, I think you may have identified the reason why demographic arguments get no respect in mainstream economic circles. Traditional economists see a decline in demand as an effect of recession and not a cause. This is so ingrained that perhaps it is too dangerous, academically speaking, for a credentialed economist to seriously advocate the demographic case. It's a little like a 1950s paleontologist advocating hot-blooded dinosaurs. Everyone "knew" that dinosaurs were giant lizards and lizards are cold-blooded. As I am not a credentialed economist and therefore have nothing to lose, I will continue to make the case that declines in demand are a primary cause of economic downturns/recessions/depressions and not the effect.

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