. . . To Dr. Bob and all . . . .
Great to hear from you, Dr. Bob. You have done an excellent job over the years . . providing free online technical insight to the small investor/trader. Congrats on a job well done. Haven't been around much, due to not trading much these days. . . (don't like low volatility markets).
Yes, the sickness seems to be spreading fast. The Nasdaq has looked extremely weak for about 6 weeks now. Market breadth has continued to weaken. Rallies have been turned back. Treasury yields are through the roof. Market volatility is around 14, which I don't believe I have ever seen. All we need next is for volume to dry up and we will find ourselves in a long, slow, bear market like the 70's. . . where nobody, not bulls nor bears, makes any money for a long long time.
Even the $3.00 per gallon of gas, predicted for summer sounds like the 70's. Maybe we should get out the fringe and bell bottoms . . . curl our hair and dust off our Led Zeppelin albums.
Watching market indicators has been like watching someone in intensive care begin to flatline. . . .yet no code blue is called and nobody comes running to the rescue. I have been trying to come up with a bullish scenario to play out in 2004, but cannot. All my "crystal ball" shows is a slow uneventful bearish year. . . with the Nasdaq ending 2004 lower than it started. . . and the Dow ending slightly higher than where it began. . . but the broader market considerably lower. . .despite it being an election year.
If this were not an election year, economic indicators would likely be indicating another downturn, in my opinion. . . but I believe critical numbers are being fudged to keep things looking smooth. I like reading the revisions on the jobs numbers. All growth is removed. This past month, the only growth shown was from 21,000 government hirings. Within 30-60 days, those will likely be revised away as well.
The "lids" are again being placed on the pots (speculative stocks) once more. All in all, it has been 30 years since I have seen a bear market shape up the way this one has. And still with no word of "recession" anywhere. The fed mantra seems to be, "If we never admit to rising unemployment, then there can be no recession".
I am writing from outside Youngstown, Ohio where unemployment has reached 16.6% and the two main counties in the area are both at about 10%. Of course, this is in the rust belt. But nationwide, jobless numbers as you know, are similarly rising . . . where accurately reported (a rarity).
I saw where REITs were doing well again. . . which makes sense. . . anything with dividends is a safe play, when speculation sours. Metals and energy have done well, but without inflation it is hard to imagine them rocketing like we saw in 1980. . . implying we may be near a top for these. It makes me wonder if real estate prices can hold this time around.
For the individual investor of late. . . . Neither investing, nor trading has been neither easy nor fun.
Best wishes to Dr. Bob. You are always welcome here.
Rande Is |
