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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: Ilaine who wrote (47095)3/7/2004 11:32:37 AM
From: AC Flyer  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
>>There was a weird, flukey, inexplicably sharp decline in consumption which occurred in the middle of 1930 that nobody can quite figure out.<<

CB, you are making my point exactly.

When looking at the immigration data from the early part of the 20th Century, you must look at with a 15 year lag. The reason for this is that immigrants were, on average, 30 years old and that peak consumer spending for US citizens occurred than at age 45 (peak spending now occurs, on average, at age 47).

So...There was a weird, flukey, inexplicably sharp decline in consumption which occurred in the middle of 1930 that...was caused by the weird, flukey but entirely explicable precipitous drop in immigration that occurred in 1914.
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