Kerry Leads Bush by 5% in New Florida Poll
MIAMI (Reuters) - Democratic Sen. John Kerry (news - web sites) would defeat President Bush (news - web sites) in Florida if the presidential election were held today, according to poll results published on Sunday.
The telephone survey of 800 registered Florida voters showed 49 percent would vote for presumptive Democratic nominee Kerry, 43 percent for Republican incumbent Bush and 3 percent for independent candidate Ralph Nader (news - web sites). With eight months to go before the election, only 5 percent were undecided.
The poll suggests another photo finish could loom in the politically divided state that Bush won by just 537 votes in 2000.
"Florida is in play," said pollster Kellyanne Conway. "This poll clearly demonstrates that the state that gave us drama and nail-biting in 2000 is proving no differently in 2004."
The poll was conducted on Wednesday and Thursday, right after the Massachusetts senator effectively clinched the Democratic nomination by winning contests in nine of 10 states on "Super Tuesday." The survey had a 3.5 percent margin of error.
It was conducted for The Miami Herald and the St. Petersburg Times by Washington polling firms of Schroth & Associates, whose political clients are Democrats, and The Polling Company, whose political clients are Republicans.
The survey showed Florida voters are widely skeptical of Bush's handling of the economy, the war in Iraq (news - web sites) and the overall direction of the country. Fewer than half of the respondents, 47 percent, approved of the president's overall performance.
Kerry looked so strong that adding a Floridian to his ticket did nothing to boost his numbers. In fact, with either Florida Sen. Bob Graham or Sen. Bill Nelson as his running mate, the poll suggested the gap between Kerry and Bush could narrow.
Pollster Rob Schroth predicted the lead in Florida could flip back and forth between Bush and Kerry over the coming months. In December, Bush led a generic Democratic candidate by 6 points.
One in three independent voters said they would support Bush, while 57 percent supported Kerry.
Both sides have pledged to make Florida a key battleground, spending millions on advertising and voter mobilization in pursuit of the state's 27 electoral votes. |
