jack, not sure of your question really. "Bear market correction idea ...." there are several ways for me to interpret that. You mean for example this whole gen market rise over the last year has been a correction against a trend, or are we soon to get a correction (down), which may not be a correction but a resumption of trend?
Can we have a bear market if we have real earnings? Did Barrick have real earnings in a bear market?
Think you more or less want to know where I stand.
The reason I was looking at long term charts the other day is because I was reading some cycle stuff. The fellow I was following uses astrology. He has decent correlation. His current longer term prediction shows a down here this month, followed by a strong rebound into May, followed by a long net down into early '05, an up then down with a big bottom in late '05, followed by a huge rebound to perhaps new market highs in '06. He is not predicting a market wipeout here, just a correcting market on the way to new highs in '06. The '06 high would be major.
I then read Onischka who has the following. My interpretation is that the Mar 05 top will be a major one, whence we start a prolonged down that actually runs into '06. In the longer term sense I believe Onischka has the Dow as having completed a [3] as I would mark it, and now in [4] corrective, w/r to EW.
Jan 04 - a Top.
Aug 04 - a Low.
4 Q 04 - a Top.
Mar 05 - a Top.
4 Q 06 - a Low.
08 - A Low.
10 - A Low.
Then we have Bob Bronsen, who has his own growth cycle analysis. Bob imo does good work. He does EW but interestedly enough, not here in the same way. One needs to read Bob carefully and understand what he is driving at. Bob basically separates the market phases into 4 distinct phases and would have us now heading smack into the meat of the deflationary-hyperinflationary phase. The phases however are accompanied by bull and bear alternating markets, 15 to 20 years in duration each. We are in a bear phase.
financialsense.com
So after reading all this I thought I needed to go take a peek at where I think we are. I charted that we are in [4]. Gayer charted the [4] also. But who is right and who is wrong and what does this mean?
It appears probable in my opinion we are all right, and that we are in a corrective [4], a huge one that will last for a long time. The patterns that will occur during this corrective are very unpredictable, hence the differences in the cycle analyses when one tries to hone in on more specific dates. Cycle analyses are based on LT patterns, and they aren't going to hit too consistently during a huge corrective, not within weeks or even months. We may go from new market highs to extreme lows, as these huge ABC patterns carry themselves out.
In the shorter term sense we may have just went through something like a iv in the HUI. How many played that to perfection everyday? If it was a iv and ST, no big deal, one can just sit it out and be okay. But now stretch that out to a 15 year duration, not so easy to just sit.
I am glad I looked at this. It has given me a little more appreciation for where I think we are in the longer term sense, and perhaps a better frame of mind as to how to play this going forward. The best approach imo is to be careful, keep a very open mind, and use a lot of TA about the FA.
In the very NT I favor more down, with a probable bottom off this down sometime late this month or early next. Other than that, I am unsure.
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