...they erroneously pull up that 2000 map and assume the red states are still with Bush.
No one is "assuming" anything - Zogby asked voters in mid-February:
zogby.com
Released: February 18, 2004
Bush Leads in Red States, Kerry Ahead in Blue States Voters Hardened on the Economy, War, Gays Marriage
"A new poll conducted by Zogby International for The O’Leary Report and Southern Methodist University’s John Tower Center from February 12-15, 2004 of 1,209 likely voters with a margin of error of +/- 2.8 percentage points found that if the election for president were held today, Democrat John Kerry would edge George W. Bush 46% to 45% in the “blue states” – or states won by Al Gore in the 2000 election. In the “red states,” or states won by George W. Bush in 2000, however, Bush wins handily by a 51% to 39% margin."
The implication is that Bush has a relatively wide margin in the states he won in 2000 while Kerry has only a statistically insignificant margin (i.e. well within the margin of error) in the states Gore won.
Obviously, to really tell how the election would turn out if held today, you'd need to break down each individual state and then add up the red vs. blue electors. That detail may be in Zogby's full report - if you decide to buy it, let us know, OK?
zogby.com |
