Preferred and Favorite Dollar Count.
I have been trying to come up with what I view as my favorite dollar count, and therefore path forward. Before I get to that I want to regress a bit. Back when POG hit 430 I was plotting my EW, and along with Sinclair, thought POG was going to clear 440 before it encountered a significant correction, i.e. this correction. Why did we think that? Because the waves were extending is why, and there appeared to be more to run.
What happened? What happened to make it all suddenly stop?
Now of recent Sinclair talked about about a bottom no sooner than last Friday, rescinded to last Thursday, followed by perhaps another two weeks of sideways to up chop, before POG really should get going. Why might he be saying this?
I have went back and looked at the dollar very carefully and opened up certain minor waves, to try and find out, and plotted it down bit by bit. Here is what I currently see, in a series of charts shown at the end. The summary of this analysis is:
a) The USD is currently in a iv of III of 3 down, probably in the B of that iv.
b) A key element was that the iv of iii of III corrected higher than normal. The v of iii of III then truncated early, and the iii of III of 3 ended on about the 17th of Feb, shown on chart S2. In essence it ended early.
c) This truncation and immediate entrance into the next correction, the current one which is the iv of III of 3, has made it seem like we have been in one long correction. In actuality they are different ones, and resulted in near double tops at 430 in POG, double top in the HUI, etc. etc.
d) At present it appears the current iv of III of 3 has completed the A and is now in a B. Time fibs indicate this correction could go on for approximately two more weeks. The B will probably finish this week, the C next. Thus, we may think it is over this week, only to find there is more to go next week. This iv can not go any higher than approximately 91, or it invalidates the count and this whole analysis.
e) Following the completion of the iv of III of 3, in about two weeks, the v of III of 3 should commence, if we are on track here. POG should chop sideways to net higher, with volatility, until the v starts. It should smell the v and gradually strenghten vis a vis the dollar as it chops. A 1st target for the end of the III of 3 would be just above 80. The end w/r to time of the III of 3 is projected to be early June.
f) Following the end of the III of 3, the dollar will do a larger correction, the IV of 3, but it to will be an intermediate correction. The ensuing V of 3 will complete the 3, and will drive the dollar down below 80, with certainty. It is the matter of another subject, but I expect the HUI to correct severely, coincident with the IV of 3 dollar correction. Maybe fairly quick but brutal.
I reserve the right to be wrong and revise. That is what EW is all about.
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