Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (47122)	3/8/2004 4:09:56 AM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (1) of 74559

Secular failure of demand ? Where ? Japan - can only go up China and rest of Asia - going up Australia & Canada other resource countires (Russia) - going up Europe - can't go down much more unless they are REALLY stupid. LATAM - resource sales positive, financing risk - That leaves the USA.... Government spending is drivng demand, and interest rates will remain low until there is job growth to drive consumer spending. Stock market is up and housing prices in many places are rising, providing more equity. IS this a delicate situation that will likely end badly ? You bet ! But inflation is on it's way to provide a soft landing for debtors (and creditors). More importantly, world economic growth will NOT be solely dependent on US consumption & growth - not with China, Japan, rest of Asia, resource countries, and a modest turn up in Europe. IN 2002, a fall in US consumption would have been very bad. Today , not the end of the world, jsut a decline in commodity prices....

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