OUTLOOK Euro zone data to show industry recovering slowly, inflation falling (AFX News)
fxstreet.com
Monday, March 8, 2004 4:25:48 AM
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PARIS (AFX) - Euro zone indicators to be released this week will show that the recovery in the industrial sector remains slow, economists said.
Meanwhile, national consumer prices data are likely to confirm that inflation fell in the euro zone in February, they said.
The key figures of the week will be German and French industrial production figures for January, with both countries expected to report small increases in output.
"The January industrial production figures for France and Germany will confirm that the recovery in this sector is very weak, particularly when compared to previous cyclical recoveries," said Florence Beranger of CDC IXIS.
Last Thursday, European Central Bank president Jean-Claude Trichet acknowledged that the pace of economic recovery remains modest for the moment, but expressed confidence that growth will accelerate in the course of this year.
However, Beranger said the pace of the recovery is likely to remain fairly slow.
"A recovery is under way but it is not dynamic and growth will not accelerate this year," she said.
The German industrial output release on Tuesday is likely to be the key figure of the week in the wake of disappointing January manufacturing orders and February unemployment data, said Ed Teather of UBS.
The German unemployment total unexpectedly rose 26,000 on a seasonally adjusted basis in February, confounding expectations that it would continue on a declining trend.
And German manufacturing orders fell a larger-than-expected 2.0 pct month-on-month in January, following a 1.6 pct rise the month before.
Beranger said the fact that orders were growing up to December still points to a rise in output in January but it is likely to be moderate.
"The rise of the euro has started to weigh on foreign demand, and domestic demand remains weak," she noted.
Meanwhile, French and Spanish inflation numbers are likely to confirm Eurostat's estimate that euro zone inflation dropped to a four year low of 1.6 pct in February from 1.9 pct in January, economists said.
French inflation is expected to ease to 1.6 pct in February from 2.0 pct in January.
Favourable base effects will bear down on French inflation, said Emmanuel Ferry of Exane.
Spanish inflation is expected to be unchanged at 2.3 pct following a sharp slowdown in recent months, economists said.
Economists' forecasts for euro zone indicators due March 8-12 (pct except trade/current account balances) AFX CONSENSUS PREVIOUS TUES MARCH 9 German Jan industrial output month-on-month +0.2 +0.1 year-on-year +1.7 +3.0 WED MARCH 10 German Jan trade balance (bln eur) +10.0 +10.4 German Jan current account balance (bln eur) -1.1 +5.7 Italy Q4 GDP (2nd estimate) quarter-on-quarter flat +0.5 year-on-year +0.1 +0.5 (preliminary estimate: unchanged qtr-on-qtr; +0.1 yr-on-yr) THURS MARCH 11 Spain Feb CPI month-on-month +0.2 -0.7 year-on-year +2.3 +2.3 FRI MARCH 12 French Jan industrial output month-on-month +0.4 +0.3 French Jan manufacturing output month-on-month +0.3 +0.2 French provisional Feb CPI month-on-month +0.3 flat year-on-year +1.6 +2.0 ALSO EXPECTED German Feb wholesale prices month-on-month +0.6 +0.5 year-on-year +0.4 +0.4 The AFX consensus is the median of a range of forecasts gathered by AFX News from a broad sample of private sector economists. |
