crusty I did a lot of catch up reading over the weekend, from theoretical fed guru McCulley, to Gayer, to Onischka, to planetary expert Wong, to Russell .... felt like I covered a wide spectrum.
In simple conclusion:
a) Inflation and perhaps even hyperinflation seems to be the consensus, in the nearterm. Whether or not this is just another minor cycle within the deflationary-hyperinflationary K-wave segment and how it ends is subject to debate. But it makes little difference to our nearterm investment strategies, imo.
b) The pm bull and treasury rate charts seem to back up (a). Other commodity charts offer further supporting evidence, along with the dollar decline. These charts have not progressed as far as they have for no reason.
c) General markets at some point don't like inflation, rather they abhor it. At what point .... who knows, but as far as playing that one can only use the best skills they have. All about market timing.
d) If rates take off soon, and they might, I think it a race to the fall elections. Which would come first, the fall election, or a rate increase? Even odds at this point.
IMHO. |
