AMLN (DIABETES DRUGS) Message Board

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Biotech / Medical : AMLN (DIABETES DRUGS)

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To: tonyt who wrote (410)	8/17/1997 5:30:00 PM
From: Henry Niman	of 2173

Tony, Let me quickly go over why I expect a negative reaction tomorrow. To justify AMLN's market cap, they must show that they will sooner or later derive significant income from Amylin or analogs. To do this they must get the drugs approved and then sell a significant amount. I saw Friday's announcement an iffy because I didn't see the data as stellar. The drug worked in the smaller (type I) of the target populations . These patients currently take insulin. For them to take additional medications, these medications have be worthwhile. Pramlintide seems to help, but only somewhat. Therefore, 25% of the patients elected not to continue after the study ended. AMLN knows that the FDA will not approve Pramlintide for type II patients based on the data released Friday. Therefore they have additional trials which have already started. They are seeking a sub-population that will benefit. This is not a good sign. I don't think that there are major secrets here. Friday's release should have made it clear that the type II target population that will be used to get FDA approval must still be discovered.

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