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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis
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To: mishedlo who wrote (1581)3/9/2004 12:57:46 PM
From: reaper  Read Replies (5) of 116555
 
<<care to comment?>>

not really, as my views are already very well known. high money growth was supposed to cause inflation. nope. huge increases in healthcare, education and real estate were supposed to cause inflation. nope. high oil prices were supposed to cause inflation. nope. a crashing dollar was supposed to cause inflation. nope. now, today, up for bids on the Price is Right, is commodity (food, copper, lumber) causing inflation. guesses as to my response???

and of course the bond bears all have their reasons for WHY each of the above didn't cause inflation. lying US government statisticians. stupid mortgage hedgers. now today's bogeyman is Japanese currency intervention. whatever.

we've argued this crap to death for years on CFZ. i think Tip and I finally came to a gentleman's agreement that the end result was (i) inflation in "needs" (food, oil, etc); (ii) deflation in "discretionary" (cars, McMansions, travel); (iii) overall not a ton of net change in CPI chain-weighted inflation; (iv) overall not a ton of change in TNX, likely a broad range of say 2.50-5.00; (v) destruction of the US dollar; (vi) a huge relative loss of wealth / purchasing power for the US.

oops, looks like i did comment <g>

Cheers
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