I agree that BOJ will soon be unable to intervene
but what concerns me now is that the BOJ IV effort seems to have no upside barrier
they are attempting to forestall a worldwide wave of ocean tides
thus, they seem to be drawn into unlimited yen monetization
will we see $300B in BOJ IV toward US$ rescue this year ?
after $184B in 2003
they feel they must, as even their exports are slowing
China is key here, as exports to China are relenting somewhat
IS THERE ANY PERCEIVED OR PRACTICAL LIMIT TO BOJ IV ???
I do not think so
this reminds me of a drug addict
he sells his entire family fortune out
then his inlaw's jewelry
then raids the cellar museum of its rarities
then onto the neighbors
I see no limit
WHAT WE HAVE HERE IS A FAILURE OF CENTRAL BANKING
PLAIN & SIMPLE
they are not ill-equipped, they are totally incapable of fighting DEFLATION
I believe you, Russ, will achieve some level of satisfaction only very late in this game
USTBonds will be the final asset group to suffer deflation
dead last, then we are dead, with rising interest rates
when the EU and Japanese economies felt some pain, they jumped in to rescue the US$, out of self-interest
they flinched
as long as exporters need domestic help, CB's will help
that help will be in the form of USTBonds
as long as oldline industries resist reforms, CB's will help
more USTBonds bought
the #1 safehaven will remain USTBonds for some time
YOU NEED FOR THAT TO CHANGE, BUT IT WILL TAKE TIME
it will require enough time for our Trez supply needs to escalate
it will require enough time for ECB and BOJ ability and willingness to wane, or be worn down
or for their desire to support Chinese debt to grow
ECB and BOJ will keep subsidizing the US$ in the form of USTBonds until the cows dont come home
many steps remain before USTBonds suffer the deflation
it will come in the form of worldwide illiquidity
but not for failure to try
it will be from failure to keep up
the USGovt federal deficits are gonna rise
war and prescription drugs will be the lethal pieces
few seem to expect an outright US Economic recession
I sure as hell expect it to begin next year, maybe 2H 2004
KRichebacher points out that extreme imbalances are plenty enough cause for kicking recessions off, all by themselves
and we have monstrous imbalances
incredibly, our Knighted MrMagoo Greenspasm does not believe imbalances and USDollar decline are related !!!
what a fuching moron
or else, just another lying politician
lately, he is acting like Secy of Cheerleading
/ jim |
