President Bush may be slipping in some polls, but even Democratic Party officials concede that Bush is likely to do much better with Jewish voters this time around than he did in 2000. In that year, Bush was estimated to have won just under 20% of the Jewish vote. Current surveys show the President’s support north of 30% among Jewish voters, were the election held today. Of course, some Jews are still afraid to admit in polite company that they will vote Republican. A positive development in Jewish political open-mindedness is that many younger Jews I have met are much more open about the fact that they plan to vote for Bush, primarily because he has been a good friend of Israel, and a strong leader in the war on terror.
I had dinner last weekend with one of my college roommates, who is Jewish and very active in Jewish fundraising and Israeli issues. I hadn't talked politics with him in some time (he lives in another state), probably a few years. I asked him his perception of how the Jewish community, or at least those members of it that he associates with, viewed the choice between Bush and Kerry. He said it was a difficult choice because many in the community perceived Bush as more pro-Israel than most previous U.S. Presidents, even though in other political matters many of them are more comfortable with Kerry's positions. He speculated that Bush is likely to do a bit better this time than last time among Jewish voters. I got the impression that my friend is leaning toward Bush though he is undecided. He usually votes Democratic.
I wonder if there are any polls which address this issue. There are only 4 or 5 million Jews in the U.S. (I think that's about right, I didn't look it up), and the largest groups are in New York and Florida. New York is probably going to vote Democratic, but Florida could be tipped by any trend, no matter how small. |
