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Politics : Don't Blame Me, I Voted For Kerry

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To: CalculatedRisk who wrote (6248)3/10/2004 7:15:35 PM
From: Original Mad DogRead Replies (1) of 81568
 
You are citing Keynes from 1919. He was a proponent of deficit spending as a temporary stimulus for a stumbling economy:

Keynes' theory suggested that active government policy could be effective in managing the economy. Keynes advocated counter-cyclical fiscal policies: deficit spending when a nation's economy was sluggish and the suppression of inflation in boom times by either increasing taxes or cutting back on government spending. His macroeconomic model offered a way of calculating the equilibrium state of an economy and defining inflation and recession as departures from it; thus policy could proceed from analysis.

This contrasted with the neoclassical analysis of government intervention in the economy. It was always clear that government work was an alternative. It could increase wages temporarily and therefore increase the demand for goods, stimulating production. But there was no reason to believe that this stimulation would outrun the side effects that discouraged investment — the government, competing with private interests, would be bidding up the wage rate, leading to no overall increase in economic activity. The underlying assumption was that capital had to be directed to increasing productive capacity. A public-works program diverted capital from its proper job.


en.wikipedia.org

Might he have preferred getting the stimulus from spending more rather than taxing less? I'd have to go back and read some more of his later writings to debate that point. But he clearly thought that running deficits in a time of economic slowdown was the appropriate policy. And that is what Bush has done, and the GDP growth has been fairly good on average the past nine quarters. Job growth always lags GDP growth during a recovery, but it usually does not lag GDP growth by as long as it has this time. Is that Bush's fault? I don't think so; many here apparently do. I guess that's why we have elections.
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