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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (18501)	3/11/2004 10:59:34 AM
From: Bob Rudd	Read Replies (1) of 78702

LF Started today @18.87 - small position. Despite potential for copycat entries, LF has unique offerings that have 'razor blade' aspects - main unit sales drive additional software sales. Yesterday's miss hit's a small $ quarter and represents prior Q borrowing from current Q and outsize impact of R&D on small Q. While accounting requires expensing R&D, there's a strong case to be made that benefits extend over several quarters so I don't put great store in this impact. Insiders have been selling aggressively and short interest is high...both have been proved prescient, but today's whack on top of prior decline likely changes the value proposition. This miss has cost LF Credibility with analyst community and several downgrades have ensued today, but this smacks of locking the barn after the horses have been stolen. There's no debt and some cash so they can withstand some stormy weather. Merrill took 04 down to 1.26 and forward growth to 15% [below prior consensus] which puts PEG about 1. I've watched this for awhile, but not studied it thoroughly...so this position is tentative and speculative.

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