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Technology Stocks : Full Disclosure Trading
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To: Return to Sender who wrote (8329)3/11/2004 5:20:19 PM
From: Sam Citron  Read Replies (1) of 13403
 
OT I think the surprising thing is how well-behaved the markets have been over the last year. Until today, the Dow hasn't been down by as much as 1% in a day in over 10 months. Ever since the Iraq War ended, the market has been a one-way ticket to the upside in spite of some worrisome developments: still no viable end-game in Iraq, but instead a bottomless money pit that the gov't. refuses to even try to quantify; unprecedented job destruction numbers at this stage in the business cycle; warning sounds about the end of social security safety nets. The fiscal stimulus seems to have created an artificial paradise for a while. But that's now over and the market is retracing its gains.

The following chart is interesting: bigcharts.marketwatch.com

Looks to me like we could be putting in a major top and a potential test of the lows, either this October or next year. I have no idea what the market is going to do tomorrow, but the coming weeks and months look like they could be challenging. No way the summer of 2004 is going to be as benign as the summer of 2003. The mood is getting glum. It may be early to make a guess, but to this observer, the stock market is looking like it is not going to set up a victory for the incumbent, and that is further fuel for the bears, because it means no more tax cuts.

That's why I'm not looking to buy the dips here.

Sam
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