Kerry Leads Bush, 50 Percent to 43 Percent, in Poll (Update1)
March 12 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic presidential candidate John Kerry widened his lead over President George W. Bush to 7 percentage points with eight months to go before the election, according to a nationwide poll by American Research Group.
Kerry, a U.S. senator from Massachusetts, garnered the support of 50 percent of those polled compared with 43 percent for Bush, a Republican. Seven percent of respondents were undecided, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
The gap between Bush and Kerry was narrower in past surveys by American Research, a Manchester, New Hampshire-based organization that has been polling consumers since 1985. In a Feb. 17-19 survey, Kerry led Bush 48 percent to 46 percent, with 6 percent undecided. In January, Kerry led 47 percent to 46 percent. Both were statistical ties, with margins of error of 3.5 percentage points.
Bush's job approval ratings have fallen nationwide as the U.S. economy has failed to reverse the loss of 2.3 million jobs since 2001. Kerry, 60, may be able to secure the Democratic nomination next week in a primary vote in Illinois, after winning in 31 out of 34 state contests since January.
The American Research Group results are based on 770 telephone interviews with registered voters in the continental United States conducted March 9 to March 11. The group did not disclose where it contacted respondents. In addition to nationwide consumer polls, American Research also runs the New Hampshire Poll, which has surveyed the state's residents on social, political and economic issues since 1976.
The Nader Effect
When independent candidate and consumer advocate Ralph Nader was added to the American Research Group ballot, he siphoned 2 percentage points from Kerry and 1 from Bush, leading to a 48 percent to 42 percent edge for Kerry, with Nader at 2 percent and 8 percent undecided. Nader drew some support from Bush among independent voters, the organization said.
Bush, 57, leads Kerry among the 32 percent of voters who said the national economy is improving. He trails Kerry among the 66 percent of voters who said the economy will remain on course or get worse, the poll showed.
An American Research Group poll on Bush's job performance in February showed 56 percent of Americans disapproved of his handling of the economy, the highest percentage in a year. |
