Madrid Bombing: Evidence Points Away From ETA
March 12, 2004 2106 GMT
Summary
Spanish explosives experts have found an unexploded bomb they say leads them to conclude the Basque separatist group ETA did not build the device. This makes it more likely that a militant Islamist group is behind the multiple, nearly simultaneous attacks in Madrid on March 11.
Analysis
Spanish Prime Minister Jose Maria Aznar continued to insist March 12 that ETA is to blame for the most devastating attacks in his country's history. However, Spanish explosives experts examined an unexploded bomb found inside a backpack late March 11 and concluded the device was not manufactured by ETA bombers.
Within hours of the attack, European and Russian diplomatic and security sources told Stratfor that Islamist militants were the likeliest suspects. Those suspicions now have hardened. A highly placed U.S. source told Stratfor on March 12 that U.S. intelligence believes the attacks were carried out either by groups associated with al Qaeda or by al Qaeda sympathizers. The source confirmed that U.S. intelligence agencies are actively helping the Spanish government search for the guilty party.
The technical and design characteristics of the unexploded bomb significantly increase the likelihood that the attacks, which killed 199 and wounded nearly 1,500, are the work of al Qaeda or another militant group associated with Osama bin Laden's network. The unexploded bomb had a copper detonator; ETA habitually uses aluminum. The dynamite was not French-made Titadine, which ETA operatives frequently steal from French quarries; it likely was made in Spain by Explosivos Rio Tinto, Spanish government sources say.
Investigators are trying to determine whether the dynamite was stolen or an individual or company bought it legally. The unexploded dynamite has markers that will allow investigators to determine who manufactured it and the date it was made. Sales of explosives are tightly regulated in Spain, and the paper trail should help investigators more or less pinpoint where they came from and where they wound up. If the bombers are as sophisticated as Stratfor believes, however, Spanish investigators could identify the origin of the dynamite but still be unable to pin down the actual bombers.
If an al Qaeda cell or an associated outrider group attacked Madrid, it would have major implications for Western Europe. Al Qaeda and associated groups have struck targets in Asia, Africa, the Middle East and the United States. The Madrid attack would be the first strike inside the European Union. More attacks of this nature should be expected in other EU countries, especially Britain, France and Italy -- and possibly also in Germany.
Britain is replete with zealous young unemployed Muslims who have dropped out of school, and there might be some among them willing to launch attacks in retaliation for Prime Minister Tony Blair's support of the war on Iraq. There also are groups that are "cheerleaders" of sorts for jihadists. These represent a potential pool of recruits. Some Muslims also could harbor longstanding grievances against Britain for perceived wrongs committed against Islam dating from the British colonial era.
France has a large Muslim population, and many are enraged by the government's ban on religious symbols that includes headscarves. Although the Chirac government bitterly opposed the U.S. invasion of Iraq, some militant Islamist groups could choose more forceful ways to express their repudiation of a ban many see as an insult to Muslim women and an offense to Islam.
The Italian people overwhelmingly opposed the Iraq war, more so perhaps than any EU population save that of Spain, but Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi's support for the Bush administration also makes Italy a legitimate target. Germany also could be targeted for prosecuting Muslims charged with crimes related to Sept. 11.
The choice to target trains has horrifying implications for EU countries in which everyone travels by rail. Suicide bombers have attacked U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, a nightclub packed with foreigners in Bali and a U.S. warship anchored in a Yemen port. The bombers in Madrid chose a congested public transport system, and no suicide bombers appear to have been involved -- although this will not be confirmed beyond a doubt until forensics experts complete the autopsies, which could take weeks or even months.
Europe has a wealth of targets like Madrid's rail system; it is one of the world's most densely populated regions. Besides urban passenger rail systems, future attacks in Europe could target football stadiums, pedestrian promenades like the area near the Spanish Steps in Rome, shopping malls and other venues that tend to be heavily congested but do not have the security found in airports and near government buildings. The implications are that federal and local governments will have to ratchet up security significantly in the future, which will hinder broader efforts to contain the fiscal red ink in countries like France.
The Madrid bombers appear to be a highly autonomous group, which means they will be very difficult to locate. With U.S. and other anti-terrorism forces aggressively pursuing al Qaeda leaders Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri, it is not likely the group had any contact with the chieftains. The bombers might have known they had bin Laden's blessing, but they most likely planned and executed the Madrid attacks autonomously without receiving orders from the top. If we are correct in this assumption, the group that carried out the Madrid attacks has already dispersed and gone deep undercover. It is even possible they have left Spain and are hiding elsewhere in the European Union. |
