Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: gregor_us who wrote (1927)	3/13/2004 11:06:45 AM
From: yard_man	Read Replies (1) of 116555

I sleep fine -- two things are not very likely in the short term 1) Monster dollar rally from here 2) Huge increases in short term interest rates Either one would be "bubble" killlers. Don't get me wrong I think the bubble can pop without them -- but policies that "shoot at the bubble" are not going to be employed. Currencies aren't like stocks. It's not a big gambling casino like the Nazcrap. USD could possibly make it to 92 -- like whatsizname says -- it's mostly the relationship to the euro we are talking about here. Anything over 92 is going to take improvement in the trade imbalance, which ain't gonna happen any time soon. (the only way it can happen is reduced imports -- but if that shows -- the dollar will weaken as well?). As far as the short term is concerned -- recent bounce back had more to do with the terrorist deal than anything else. US "friend" hit (Spain) -- where would the next loogical place for an attack be?? Another friend of the US in the war on terror?? So we get the snapback. Short the USD is the place to be if you can just stay with it ... BTW. I sleep fine at night -- a lot of folks where shaken out of the golds at HUI==180 by a lot of similar blather. Can we go back there?? Sure ... but many will take the advice of supposed gurus and get out right before the next move. I think we are going to get a good downmove in the averages soon, but predicting a collapse?? That's stupid -- how much of chance does one have at being right about that??

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