Ted Re...First, no one said that oil production was going to stop or fall off a cliff. What was said is that oil production will peak some time in the future, and not that it was going to dead end.
I think you are misinterpreting Tim's remarks. Tim, is trying to say, that just as the US found other sources, after US production peaked, (ME for example); after those resources are found, and peaked, the US, and the world will turn to other sources, for their energy needs. Such as tar sands, shale oil, coal gasification etc, for hydrocarbons, nuclear, wind, solar, for electric energy, etc. It will cost more, but alternate sources exist, even today.
What does the world do when the world's production peaks and demand remains high?
If I were you, I would entertain the possibility, demand will outpace capacity, long before capacity peaks. As an example, lets say todays production is 100 mln bbls oil/day. In the yr, 2020, demand might be 150 mln bbls/day, while production will have grown to only 120 mln bbls/day. With deep sea drilling, tar sands, etc, it is likely production will keep on expanding far longer than one might think. It is also likely, with China, India, etc, demand will boom faster than production increases. |
