Puts on the stock market? I don't know why
raising fed funds slowly and gradually would
upset the stock market so dramatically. But
I have an idea it will let the air out of bonds,
there seems to be a lot being said about a bubble
in the bond market due to something called the
'carry trade' and some short covering after the
jobs report. But honestly, you are quite right,
I am at least partly clueless, this is all mainly
jibberish to me, but I do know that there has been
a very very long bull market in bonds, and at the
least all good things come to an end. Just like
the stock market in 2000.
I do suppose that there is a chance I have been
brainwashed by Krugman, Roach, and James Grant, fair
enough, I certainly do not know anything more than
what I read--if it sounds convincing it sticks. Those
fellas sound pretty convincing, and I especially liked
the Steven Roach commentary of a week or two ago.
But if I make some money in the next year or two on
that ryjux bet, I want all the credit <g>. As far as
shorting treasuries outright, nah, that fund is the
way to go for me. I am not greedy, and there is
certainly a chance I'll be selling it in a few days
if the fed did something really spooky, like dropping
a quarter. They should show some confidence in the
economy, let the tail wag the dog with a minor raise.
Gold, now why would I ever put a bet on something
I could not care a whiff about. I don't get paid
in gold, and I wouldn't know how to spend it, so
I sure as hell would not speculate on that crap
one way or the other. I heard once that an ounce
of gold would buy you a good suit--but I have to
do the conversion because the Men's Wearhouse
does not accept Maple Leafs or Kruggarrands, or
whatever the hell the gold bugs chase around.
Now, I would pay anywhere from $200 to $600
for an everyday suit, so that tells me that gold
is about fairly priced, ha ha. No, I just wasted
several minutes thinking about whether other people
buy nicer suits, when the only thing that really
matters is that I lose weight and look better
in the one suit I already own. |
