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Politics : Politics for Pros- moderated

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To: Nadine Carroll who wrote (34476)	3/15/2004 4:56:59 AM
From: frankw1900	Read Replies (1) of 793868

Perhaps nothing changed. The AQ managed to get one of their plots to fruition in a Western country. They were stymied in the West several times since 9/11. The general idea is to attack anyone anywhere who is vulnerable and not part of them. Outside of a few places AQ types are thin on the ground and most local franchises don't have a lot of talent. They do what they can. Hence the number of stupid attacks. In the Spanish case there was some talent and luck. AQ exported a lot of talent to Europe pre 9/11. Spain was a logical target because its security services have been doing a pretty good job of rolling up some AQ cells and of course the government supported the US in its ME venture. These people this time managed to maintain their security. I expect they'll try the same thing on the Brits for their election. And on the US for its election. If I were the US security mavens I'd be very concerned because the election date is fixed. With the Brits it's much trickier for the terrorists because elections there can be called at any time and the campaign is short. Also the Brits are very sensitized to parcels so it wouldn't surprise me if the attack there, if it comes, might be of a different nature - think Guy Fawkes - and much bigger, if the terrorists can manage it, because of the greater British government support of the US. What's not yet clear about the Spain attack is whether it was actually a suicide attack. It's also not clear whether the Spain attack was carried out with Basque separatist support or N African terrorist support. I think part of the luck for the terrorists was the reaction of the Spanish government which tried to spin things to its electoral advantage before it had information and got caught out. Bad move with an event of this importance. It may have cost them the election. why does one politically smart and (unfortunately) successful attack follow two years of politically witless attacks? What changed?

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