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Strategies & Market Trends : Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

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To: gregor_us who wrote (2055)3/15/2004 9:49:33 AM
From: mishedlo  Read Replies (1) of 116555
 
Brian Reynolds on Industrial Production & Treasuries

Industrial production rose 0.7%, following a 0.8% gain in January and above the Bloomberg consensus of a 0.4% gain.

This report is consistent with our view of the past few months that production growth has exceeded consumption growth, causing an unwanted rise in business inventories and meaning that new orders and production are likely to at least moderate.

This report was for February, incontrast to the weak Empire State index earlier this morning which was for February. Additionally, this report was boosted by a 1.6% gain in auto production, which should moderate given current sales levels.

The strong production report caused Treasuries to give back 2/3 of their 1/3 point early morning gain, giving mortgage investors another chance to hedge themselves. The question is whether they will avail themselves of this opportunity. If not, then Treasuries would have more room to rally in the coming weeks.
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