Carl, you poured your heart and soul into that one. One important thing you missed, margin. Up until the SEC ?? changed margin rules, one could borrow up to 10X against his/her portfolio, and this included 1929. A lot of people did, and we know what happened - wipeout. When the panic set in, it was mostly borrowed money that everyone was losing, adding to the frenzy to sell. Obviously, today is different, you can only margin up to 100% of your portfolio, not 1000%. All other things being equal, this presents a big difference between 1929 and today. The market may continue its current downtrend, but nothing remotely approaching 1929 is possible, in my opinion. 1987 is another story, a steep drop and quick recovery. That is quite possible.
Incidentely, the Grand Supercycle people had me until they went into their "planetary alignment" theories, ancient prophecies, and the demise of today's capitalistic society. It was at that point I realized they were doing nothing more than trying to scare people in order to develop a following, an ancient practice on its own (reverence for sun, moon, earth, sky, ocean, etc.). Hyping fear of the unknown and seemingly mysterious, and developing power over people in the process. No thanks, we get enough of that from modern media !!!
Nice comparisons though !!!
Regards,
Al
p.s. I too own CUBE and ASPX shares, as well as many other value plays.
|
