Russ, I think you are stretching your arguments
I dont have pre-conceived notions
they are backed plenty of info (some of it yours)
but I divide into materials and finished products
at the margin, incomes are dropping
as with people finding new jobs to replace old lost jobs
net, job counts are also dropping, when you factor in population growth and new workers coming of age
you cite pricing power all the time in materials and shipping
I agree with you
but try clothing, housing merchandise like furniture, shoes, hardware items, on and on and on
wherever Asia competes, zero pricing power
their price effects are now extending into the service sector
and their province is growing all the time
yes, WalMart prices might be slowly rising, agreed
but only insofaras China is hiking their prices
I have stated this along with you
China will push up prices with a repeg
but also with their own rising material costs
they will pass along higher copper and nickel component prices for finished products like tubing and silverware
people are borrowing like crazy and no price inflation effects
they are purchasing sameold sameold shit consumerist items
but they are also purchasing medical and other services
using borrowed money like from home equity
they are also going on vacations and other splurges with borrowed money
the main effect of borrowed money so far is the speculative monster in the financial sector
yield carry trade, stocks, trez bonds, corp bonds, mortgage bonds, junk bonds
you seem to be caught in aggregate thinking
THIS IS A FATAL ERROR AMONG OUR CRACK TEAM OF ECONOMISTS NOW
we have two huge leftbrain, rightbrain areas of the economy
one subject to price inflation
one subject to continued price deflation
the only area of scarcity is in materials
rationing will not involve higher prices
I think we will see legislated fixed prices of necessities
I also think we will see controlled lids on critical materials
e.g. copper, silver, soybeans
USGovt will use CRB futures to keep prices down
we will have shortages, but not higher prices soon
and before long China will cut back on purchases
that has not started yet
here is another expectation of mine
China will soon ensure their copper supply by purchasing an entire copper mining company, together with its copper mine in Peru or Mexico
this will start a new trend among growing Asian nations
China will purchase an entire land region with heavy ngas
/ jim
p.s. bananas are exchangeable, try apples or peaches
try substituting soybeans |
