A March labor update for you. Today was a big W&S reporting day, and it was awful: 12,882 vs. 18,704. These numbers tend to jump around, and I'm just following them raw, comparing week by week, same day of week, etc. I reserve the right to update this, and I will if next Wed for example, picked up the missing wages. Right now it's worth mentioning though: 73,719 vs. 78,923 month to date, down 6.6%, that would be serious stuff if it holds. That combined with the last of the tax refund, is bad news. The news story below is further confirmation.
So I think we may be getting to your (and mine really) "falling off the cliff" point. But, it's very important ( pay attention, achtung! ) to understand that I DO NOT see this as a deflationary bust right here. I think a major case of this bust is the inflation, Train Wreck I've been writing about. I do not believe that recessionary, even depressionary conditions automatically translates into deflation. I've found very correlation between the two, this rings true.
Message 19922853
In fact with as much pump priming that's been going on, it's quite the opposite. Therefore, any more pump priming as the wheels start to come off, should be construed for what it is, more fuel for the fire: for more job loss, more price spikes, more bottlenecks, and much more trouble. The odds for the crack-up boom (which I felt was still problematic a month ago) are mounting by the day.
Reuters
US consumer confidence at 10-month low-ABC/Money
Tuesday March 16, 6:28 pm ET
NEW YORK, March 16 (Reuters) - U.S. consumer confidence fell sharply to its lowest level in 10 months, a report said on Tuesday, in a sign Americans are growing impatient with the economy's seeming inability to create new jobs.
ABC News/Money Magazine said its weekly Consumer Comfort index slid to -22 in the week to March 14 from -18 in the prior week, an unusually steep decline for this indicator.
The gloom was pervasive, with the poll's individual readings on the current state of the economy, personal finances and buying climate slipping across-the-board.
Worse yet, consumer expectations tracked in a separate ABC/Money survey also deteriorated. The number of respondents saying they were pessimistic about the economy's future has swelled 15 percent over the past two months. Only 23 percent of Americans now believe the economy is getting better.
The grim consumer outlook was in line with the results of other sentiment surveys, which have been hit hard as Americans become frustrated with a jobless economic recovery.
While analysts caution that consumers have often kept spending money even as they complain to confidence surveys, they worry that a persistent jobs rut will eventually catch up with consumers, forcing them to tighten their purse strings.
The ABC/Money survey was based on 1,000 interviews conducted in the month ending March 14, and has a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points. |
