Sam and all,
I was flipping through some industry related magazines this weekend and I found an advertisement by a small printer company from Japan called Mimaki. They supply RGFX with the P1000 and are currently marketing it in the US under an agreement with ICS. I think the RGFX/Mimaki P1000 is for Europe only and RGFX has agreed not to step on ICS's toes. I brought this up because of your interest in NKOT. You see, NKOT supplies the heads for the P5000 which are 2000 hour MTBF but the Mimaki heads are 10,000 hour and have several advantages it seems (higher res, better control, etc). I think that the only reason that RGFX didn't use these Mimaki heads was a price issue. I think we may see the price on these heads come down, and NKOT may lose out here. I also feel that RGFX may be putting together a machine utilizing these heads - maybe something that will eventually replace electrostatic machines.
I do not know who makes the Mimaki/ICS Piezo head. I STILL have not seen an advertisment by RGFX (I currently receive 5 industry related mags). I did find a great article on the whole digital imaging/LFDP revolution but I cannot find a web link for it so I'll see if I can have it typed up and post it later.
About the competetive landscape - There are several (10+) companies out there that could introduce competiitve products for RGFX but I don't see many going after this arena. I think that Lasermaster is the only real threat in the mid range (P5000) and 3M in the hi end. I think that Roland or CalComp may be working on mid range products but any introduction could be met with a price cut by RGFX. What the market really needs, is a ultra hi speed (1000+ sq ft./hr) vinyl printer. Electrostatic machines have really been the only way to go if you wanted to print at these speeds, but there is really no way to effectively print vinyl at these speeds w/o a second high cost transfer process (Scotchprinting - print onto transfer paper, and then transfer it to vinyl at 200 degrees F @ 100 psi). As for software, there are a ton of RIP programs out there with very competitive prices, so I don't see much growth here.
I think that on Sept. 3, LaserMaster will introduce their printers and RGFX will counter with new products and/or price cuts but if Lasermaster can produce a real competitor for the P5000, then RGFX will never capture the US markets because Lasermaster has such a following here. Like i said, I still haven't seen an advertisment by RGFX. 3M introduced their ScotchPrint 2000 in Q4 1996 and I believe that is why we saw Q4 '96 and Q1 '97 nearly flat - until then, the DCS was the only way to go for hi speed. I think the earnings downgrades are related to this competitive environment.
Darren |
