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Biotech / Medical : Vivus, Why the Slide?
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To: Tunica Albuginea who wrote (3052)8/18/1997 11:30:00 AM
From: DDS-OMS   of 3991
 
Tuna,

Off subject--for the most part anyway.

Cant understand why you and other computer TA haters exhibit the mind-set that TA has to be infallible or it's worthless. Do you hold your fundamental analysis to the same impossible standard as you hold TA? I must assume you have never had a losing position in a stock you picked through FA, or else obviously you would have declared FA to be worthless and henceforth resorted to dart-throwing at a WSJ page to pick your investments.(And, yes, I know the random-walk theory.) Again, how about a little more intellectual honesty.

I am fascinated by aggregate market or single stock investor psychology. Much of TA attempts to measure or quantify or decipher market psycology--Japanese candlesticks purport to solely measure investor psychology--zero FA. I have said over and over regarding VVUS that virtually all the TA indicators that I trust are bearish EXCEPT that what I consider as the best overbought-oversold oscillator is so oversold that I never go against it until it again becomes overbought. So, what is the reason(psychological) that VVUS slowly erodes while being so oversold? First thing that comes to mind is constant-significant short selling, but since it is so heavily shorted already and I think getting shares to short is still difficult, this doesn't seem like a likely answer. Cacaito's manipulation theory that some unseen major force or cabel is pushing the price down via naked, uncounted short selling? I guess it's posssible, but it sure isn't quantifiable. The obvious smart-ass answer is that there are more sellers than buyers--which also tells you nothing. Any other theories?
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