Shack, while there are lots of things pointing to extreme oversold levels, I believe until we take out NDX 1452 with some volume we will be in doubt of a sustained low this week.
CSCO is one key for me. It moved out of the falling support out of the Jan. highs today for the first time. That might just be a process of tagging a parallel channel line as well as taking care of Pain at 23.95 or so.
Thinking of times when we've made lows, it seems they come either the week prior to or the week after expiration week.
Sept. 24, 2001, Oct. 9, 2002, July 23, 2002, March 11, 2003, Feb. 12, 2003, April 2001, Dec. 2000, August 6, 2003, June 24, 2003, Oct. 24, 2003, Nov. 2003, May 7, 2002 are examples that come to mind.
I can't think of a major low that has happened during expiration week. That makes me doubt the low this week is the low for this move. This is a major move off a major top, and termination during expiration week is very unusual given our recent history of lows. |
