Hi Ron,
Moving averages based systems like many trend following systems ONLY work in decent trending markets as David pointed out, since on the average the market only trends 20-25% of the time, these systems will not perform majority of the time, of course, what we can do is to find trending stocks through filtering, and hopefully catch a good part of the trend. That's why HB's newsletter is valuable IMO, not in its TA, but in its filtering, i.e., to keep us out of "bad" stocks.
BTW, most of the gain from AMES came within the last couple of months in 97, prior to 4/1/97, using the MA5-13ws would have lost money, as would most MA based systems.
Regards,
Jerry |
