AJ -- there have been a few 10 week cycles since I started watching this (starting from the lows of Sept 21, 2001). The fact that the last cycle was a totally unreadable signal is really annoying here: with convolutions, I guess we could call this week a low.
That it's expiry week makes a low unlikely... which contrarianly makes it more likely. <g> Seriously, though, there's no reason we can't hit a low here: after all, the last time we had three straight closing TRINs over 2.35 was back in 1954 proving that anomolies happen all the time.
I can make a fine case that we've had some kind of bottom here. Semis don't look cooked to me, though they could easily tank from 495ish, as that's the backtest of a potentially broken descending triangle. Then again, based on Les's scans and a lot of decent looking wedges/channels in individual semis (KLAC anyone?), they also look like they could've bottomed.
Yesterday's lows could be called the end to the whole correction off the top, in which case we're pointed up now to new highs. Or they could be a 1 or A down. OR they could just have ended a 3 and we're in the 4 of a C/1. The fact that it's expiry week doesn't change the charts.
I can easily see myself watching this move up, trying to guage if it's a 5 waver or not. If it is, I will buy the pullback with a vengeance, 11 week cycle/expiry lows be damned.
the freep, apologizing for damning cycles |
