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Strategies & Market Trends : The New Economy and its Winners
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To: Bill Harmond who wrote (19905)3/18/2004 10:45:21 AM
From: Dave Doriguzzi  Read Replies (1) of 57684
 
Thanks. Taken a pretty good beating on that one after fighting back to even in the low 14's

8:20AM TIVO should expect pressure from NDS Group; fair value $4-$5.30; Thomas Weisel rates Underperform 10.20: Thomas Weisel reports that NDS Group, a UK-based interactive TV co controlled by News Corp., announced yesterday that it signed a six-year agreement to provide DIRECTV conditional access systems and services (content security). The firm believes that NDS' attention is now likely to shift towards pursuing further contracts with DIRECTV, specifically towards XTV (PVR) and Interactive TV software. The co's more aggressive tone on this morning's conf call, compared to their late-Jan analyst day that we attended, supports the view that NDS may more aggressively pursue such agreements. Given TiVo's (TIVO) brand and attractive feature set, they are not necessarily in jeopardy of losing their relationship with DIRECTV, but a splitting of the DIRECTV subscriber base could limit the co's ability to pursue ancillary revenue opps such as research and advertising. Additionally, a PVR deal between NDS and DIRECTV could result in increased pressure on licensing fees paid to TiVo by DIRECTV. The firm looks for TiVo monthly license fees from DIRECTV to drop from around an incremental $1.25 to $0.50 over the next 12 months. The firm estimates the fair value of TiVo at just more than $4-$5.30. The firm rates TiVo shares Underperform.
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