Surge in Support for Nader Spells Trouble for Kerry
by Julian Borger in Washington
A new poll suggested yesterday that Ralph Nader's independent presidential bid represented a serious threat to the Democratic candidate, Senator John Kerry.
The New York Times and CBS News poll revealed a tight two-man race for the White House between President George Bush and Mr Kerry. Mr Bush had a narrow lead of 46% over Mr Kerry's 43% - within the poll's margin of error.
But when Americans were asked about a three-man race including Mr Nader, the 70-year-old consumer activist attracted 7% support, mostly at the expense of the Democrat. In that contest, Mr Bush led Mr Kerry by 46% to 38%.
Mr Nader's poll ratings are higher than at this point in the 2000 election. Many Democrats claimed that the independent candidate had helped Mr Bush to win by dividing the liberal vote in swing states such as Florida and New Hampshire.
His relatively high profile in this year's polls is all the more striking as Mr Nader cannot draw on the backing and organization of the Green party, as he did four years ago.
Justin Martin, who has just published a biography of Mr Nader, said he was benefiting from the publicity from last month's decision to stand for election.
"He has a long history," Martin said, pointing to Mr Nader's two previous presidential runs.
"Ralph Nader has massive name recognition. Almost everyone knows who he is."
A recent survey has found that Mr Nader, who is of Lebanese descent, has substantial support among Arab Americans in key battleground states.
Polling by the Arab American Institute in Michigan, Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania - home to more than 1 million Arab Americans - found that 20% supported Mr Nader.
Mr Martin compared Mr Nader's relatively high standing in the polls with the volatile candidacy of the former Vermont governor, Howard Dean, who was the Democratic frontrunner until voting in the primaries began in January, when his political strength evaporated.
"Dean had these high polling numbers but, come the primaries when people walked into the polling booth, people did some hand-wringing," he said.
"There's a similar phenomenon going on here. It's exciting that Nader is in the race and it's easy to say you're going to vote for him, but it's another thing to go and do it."
Mr Nader has insisted that his candidacy would not necessarily hurt the Democratic campaign more than it would hit the Republicans.
However, much of his campaign rhetoric this year, like his four previous runs at the presidency, has focused on what he insists is the Democrat party's rightwards drift and dependence on corporate financial backing.
Yesterday's New York Times/CBS poll made bleak reading for the senator for Massachusetts for other reasons.
It suggested that Republican "attack" advertisements, which have sought to portray the Democrat as a vacillating liberal who is weak on national security, had had some impact.
The poll found that 39% of those asked saw Mr Kerry as a liberal, practically a dirty word in America's conservative heartland.
Fifty-seven per cent said "most of the time he says what he thinks people want to hear", while only a third thought he stayed true to his beliefs.
Twenty per cent fewer Americans had confidence in the senator's ability to deal wisely with an international crisis than those who trusted the president under the same circumstances.
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