Gary, the psychological reason of the price slow erosion, and this has been so for about three weeks is that there are lots of momentum buyers who fled due to the lack of news to spark another rally, together with some profit taking (eg. tuna) and waiting for another entry point (Richard,Brian)and the main reason is that other less inform small investors are not confident to wait till october or a little longer, it is a very volatile stock. But, this "bearish TA" is short term and it will be short live too, my main point is accumulation is ongoing by the big institutions, they can weather the markets ups and downs and they have money power to stand up (also they have good TA and despite the bearish signals they are accumulating!). Who is buying at this prices? little TA scare prince? No, it is the big institutions. Talking about following herds, I am following that herd (the institutions I mean). Are institutions going to pay more if small investors are running scare dropping the stock cheap? Richard has given us many times before intraday market volume data that shows that. (and that is TA also)
Oversold, all TAs only answer to this is " this does not mean it cannot become more oversold" same for overbought. Breaking down to $18 will not happen without a major fundamental change (real or unreal).
Remember the drop to $19, it was a clear manipulation of an already two month old news, rerelease in a very clever way, it did not last more than few hours.
Manipulation is real, myself I do not care much about it if I am getting the truth (check the HVSF-Kostech story pure lies and big prices swings, check the lipo story and Darth vadder involvement, check ABTI clear manipulation of clinical research data to create a $500 million dollar monster of market value). This is not cabel Gary, and after some money losses in HVSF,just $200 at the end, lucky I did not loss about $8,000 on it.
Finally, and now I do think you are naive, all TA is base in trying to mix data statistics with trading psychology (dismal sciences both of them) Statistics base on probabilities and trends. Psychology of the trading masses: nice to explain, tough to predict. |
